Commodity Market Report

No help from the weather:  ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

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15 September 2017

No help from the weather:  ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

Report summary

Despite bullish fundamentals for natural gas, moderate weather this year has kept prices in check, revising prices down through the end of the year, with additional pressures in 2018 and 2019. This combined with other fundamentals and the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma keep pressure on power prices through much of the forecast.  In terms of supply, we continue to add more wind in the Midcontinent region as developers focus where costs are the lowest and PTC revenues highest.  

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • 2018: all about supply
    • 2019: Onset of US LNG shut-ins
    • Hurricanes Irma and Harvey impact near term demand forecast
      • Demand
      • Supply
    • East and ERCOT
      • Generation
      • Prices and heat rates
    • WECC
      • Supply and demand
      • Prices and generation
    • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Scenario Overview: Table 1
  • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
  • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)
  • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
  • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 117.38 KB

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 117.42 KB

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Load Forecast ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.50 MB

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 803.29 KB

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.50 MB

  • Document

    201708 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 199.86 KB

  • Document

    No help from the weather: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

    PDF 812.94 KB

  • Document

    No help from the weather: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

    ZIP 6.07 MB