No help from the weather: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017 Report

Commodity Market Report 15 September 2017

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Report summary

Despite bullish fundamentals for natural gas, moderate weather this year has kept prices in check, revising prices down through the end of the year, with additional pressures in 2018 and 2019. This combined with other fundamentals and the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma keep pressure on power prices through much of the forecast. In terms of supply, we continue to add more wind in the Midcontinent region as developers focus where costs are the lowest and PTC revenues highest.

Executive summary
Fundamentals
- 2018: all about supply
- 2019: Onset of US LNG shut-ins
Generation balances and prices
- Hurricanes Irma and Harvey impact near term demand forecast
  - Demand
  - Supply
- East and ERCOT
  - Generation
  - Prices and heat rates
- WECC
  - Supply and demand
  - Prices and generation
Scenario Overview
- Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Scenario Overview: Table 1
Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)
Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)

What's included

This report contains:

201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 117.38 KB
201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 117.42 KB
201708 STO Base Case Load Forecast ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 2.50 MB

201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 803.29 KB
201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 2.50 MB
201708 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals ERCOT 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 199.86 KB
No help from the weather: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

PDF 812.94 KB
No help from the weather: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

ZIP 6.07 MB