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Northeast power markets long-term outlook H2 2019: The view to 2050 as the transition accelerates

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19 December 2019

Northeast power markets long-term outlook H2 2019: The view to 2050 as the transition accelerates

Report summary

North American electricity markets continues to transition towards low cost renewables backstopped by low cost natural gas fired generation. In this outlook we extend the forecast for the first time through 2050, with markets more broadly transitioning away from fossil fuels. During this extended period renewable saturation begins to more uniformly outpace the impact of growth in gas and carbon prices, and prices begin to flatten or begin to decline in real terms.

Table of contents

  • This outlook continues to assume a federal carbon price in the US starting 2028. This will also serve as a backstop floor price for all states under regional programs in the future.
  • Despite the strongest YOY demand growth in a decade last year, this year has been more contained, as most markets are now trending negative YOY due to much milder weather.
  • Future trends in demand remain heavily leveraged to new energies like energy efficiency, distributed generation and electric vehicles, which are expected to account for a fifth of electric demand in 2040. As step function efficiency gains begin to moderate, early signs of an expected recovery in demand are now emerging.
  • Still, the days of 1% p.a. plus growth are not likely to return on a countrywide basis, at least until new end use electrification starts to take off.
    • (Renewables include utility-scale and distributed solar + onshore and offshore wind)
    • While utility scale solar and wind are expected to dominate renewable generation, emerging technologies are set to radically increase their market share. Residential and commercial solar is expected to account for 30% of all solar generation in 2040, doubling from today's level. Offshore wind accounts for 20% of wind generation by 2040, up from negligible levels today.
    • Utility-scale solar
    • Residential solar
    • Non-Residential Solar
    • Onshore wind
    • Offshore wind
    • Battery storage (Grid scale)
    • Hybrid systems (Solar plus storage, Wind plus storage)
  • Technology LCOEs (levelized cost of energy):Cost of mature solar and wind technologies now below gas technologies across geographies in NA; expected to stay that way despite phase down of subsidies.

Tables and charts

This report includes 1 images and tables including:

  • Figure 2: LCOE ($/MWh) forecast for various technologies

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO Base Case_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Nominal_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 574.25 KB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO Base Case_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Real_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 586.82 KB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO Base Case_Load_Forecast_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 2.62 MB

  • Document

    Northeast power markets long-term outlook H2 2019: The view to 2050 as the transition accelerates

    PDF 22.91 MB

  • Document

    Northeast power markets long-term outlook H2 2019: The view to 2050 as the transition accelerates

    ZIP 19.27 MB

  • Document

    2019 H2 Northeast Regional Market Outlook.pdf

    PDF 2.57 MB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO_Base Case_Emission_Prices_Nominal_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 57.06 KB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO_Base Case_Emission_Prices_Real_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 57.65 KB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO_Base Case_Emissions_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 118.20 KB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO_Base Case_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Nominal_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 8.23 MB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO_Base Case_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Real_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 9.95 MB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO_Base Case_State_RPS_Targets_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 912.12 KB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO_Base Case_Supply_Demand_Energy_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 1.05 MB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO_Base_Case_Capacity_Prices_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 243.91 KB

  • Document

    2019 H2 LTO_Base_Case_Renewable_Energy_Credit_Prices_Northeast_12_14_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 876.87 KB

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