Vietnam power markets long-term outlook 2015 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 July 2015

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Report summary

With the rapid pace of growth, the power supply and demand gap will continue to grow in South Vietnam despite the completion of several coal projects since 2014. This is leading to blackouts. With hydro contributing to more than 40% of the capacity mix in Vietnam, the repercussions of power shortages in South Vietnam will be even more severe during dry hydro years. At the current pace of project development, supply only can catch up with demand by 2018 at the earliest.

Executive summary
- Urgent power projects
- More IPP investment will be required
- Rare pollution protest
Economic outlook
Policy and regulation
- Energy Policy
  - Key Offices
  - Policy Drivers
  - Competition
  - Fuel mix
  - Renewables
  - Pricing
- Key players
- Power Market Regulation
  - Generation
  - Transmission
  - Distribution and Retail
Supply
- Capacity & reserve margin
  - Available capacity and reserve margin
  - Forecast New Grid Capacity By Region
    - North Vietnam
    - Central Vietnam
    - South Vietnam
    - Laos and Cambodia
Costs
- In this section
- New-build economics by technology
- Screening curves
- Sensitivity on gas breakeven prices by technology
Infrastructure
- Vietnam Power Transmission Infrastructure
  - Power Infrastructure - Current
  - Power Infrastructure – Planned & Possible
  - Power Infrastructure Maps
Demand
- Power demand
  - Vietnam GDP growth and power sales
Supply-demand balances
- Annual generation forecast
- Plant Utilisation (Capacity Factor)
- Transmission Utilisation Across Regions
  - Import and intra-regional flows
- Captive power
  - Captive Power Demand by Region
Prices
- End-User Tariffs
- Average Annual System Short-run Cost
- Breakeven Cost Forecast
Risks and uncertainties
- GDP sensitivity on gas demand
  - Coal sensitivity on gas demand
- Power seasonality
  - Seasonality and gas demand swing