South Africa retail fuels long-term outlook
Demand for both gasoline and diesel is expected to grow alongside an increasing passenger car fleet and economic growth. There will be increased liquids demand for personal mobility and for road freight movements. Despite having several refineries, South Africa is a net importer of road transport fuels and has the most extensive import infrastructure in the region. The country’s largest refinery, the 180 kb/d SAPREF refinery, closed indefinitely in 2022 and the country’s reliance on imports is only set to increase. There are over 4,500 service stations countrywide. Around 90% of the total retail network is under one of the six major brands which include Astron Energy, Engen, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Sasol. Retail service stations are predominantly focused in densely populated areas of Western Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. Gauteng being the economic hub of the country has over a third of the total retail network and about 40% of demand.