Weak natural gas prices drag down power prices: ERCOT power and renewables April 2023 short-term outlook

The combination of high natural gas prices and coal supply issues made 2022 a banner year for energy prices. Outside of CAISO, natural gas prices have fallen back to earth in 2023, and as a result power prices have dropped as well. While coal supply issues remain in place through 2024, these low natural gas prices also undercut the impact of those issues. As a result, with henry hub expected to remain below $4/mmbtu through 2027, energy prices should remain well below 2022 levels over the same period. The supply stack should continue to evolve over the next five years as well. Over 60 GW of coal capacity is expected to retire, while over 60 GW of solar and wind capacity are slated to come online as the country transitions to cleaner sources of energy.