Insight
An oil & refining markets presentation package: Questions answered
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
At a recent industry event, we presented our view to over 1000 delegates on the changing petroleum markets landscape. These same insights offering valuable perspective on the challenges ahead are available in this DISCOUNTED bundle of presentations. What can you gain from our analysis and not afford to miss? What next for heavy Canadian crude? Between production, takeaway capacity and demand, things were looking up…but uncertainty is now prevalent Where do RIN obligations belong? The background, economics, costs of the current situation versus the benefits, drawbacks of moving the obligation What happens to US refineries when demand declines? Implications of declining gasoline demand on trade, refinery profitability, competition The outlook for US transport fuels: a bumpy road ahead? Diverging demand trends driven by uncertainty in regulation, consumer preference, technology What happens when US oil production recovers? Future of US production, logistics, prices, crude slates, exports
Table of contents
-
What is next for heavy Canadian crude?
-
Canadian production
- Change in North America crude oil supply
- Heavy oil supply growth
- Heavy Canadian differentials
- Logistics
- Disposition of crude
-
Change is coming
- Outlook for heavy oil
- Biggest x-factor: The IMO
- Widening risk for WTI-WCS
- Takeaways
-
Canadian production
-
Where do RIN obligations belong?
-
Background on RFS
- Objectives and legislation Important legislative points Process and calculation for RVOs Obstacles- Cellulosic
- Obstacles- Blend wall
-
EPA response to petitions
- Industry petitions
-
RIN economics
- Pass-through costs
- Biodiesel RIN vs. Ethanol RIN Refinery yield shift Who pays
- How much do RINs actually cost refiners?
-
Scenarios
- Scenario 1: Status quo- refiners obligated
- Scenario 2: Point of obligation moved to blenders Scenario 3: Point of obligation and point of generation moved to retail Scenario Summary
-
What happens to US refineries when demand declines?
-
US refined product demand forecast
- Fuel efficiency, light vehicle stock, and vehicle miles traveled
-
Gasoline supply-demand balances
- PADD-level supply-demand balances
- Atlantic Basin and Asia-Pacific supply-demand balances
-
Impact on Gulf Coast refinery profitability
- Gulf Coast vs Southeast Asia net cash margins comparison
- Gulf Coast net cash margin under depressed gasoline price scenario
-
Impact on Midwest refinery profitability
- Sub-PADD supply-demand analysis
- Midwest net cash margins under depressed gasoline scenario
- Infrastructure projects from Midwest to East Coast
-
Impact on East Coast refinery profitability
- 2016 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
- East Coast net cash margins under depressed gasoline price scenario
- 2030 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
- Takeaways
-
US refined product demand forecast
-
The outlook for US transport fuels: a bumpy road ahead?
- Global oil demand
-
US demand
- Transport Fuels
- Short term outlook
- Medium term outlook
- Risk
-
Distillate demand
- Outlook
- Risks
- Jet fuel demand
- Global outlook for transport fuels
- Takeaways
-
What happens when US oil production recovers?
- US production influences crude price differentials and refining margins
- What shifts US production from declining to increasing?
- Which producing regions will be the first to respond?
- Will enough infrastructure be built to support the production increases?
- How might US refiners respond to growing US crude supply? Might it sail to other refining markets?
- How wide does Brent-WTI need to be to encourage US crude oil exports?
- Key uncertainties and strategic implications
-
Background on RFS
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Outlook for heavy oil supply & Change in heavy oil supplyHistory of the WTI-WCS differentialsWest Canada oil supply-takeaway balance
-
Disposition of crude from the WCSBOutlook for WTI-WCSFuel ethanol in gasoline poolChange in North America crude oil supply from Q1 2017 basisOutlook for heavy oil supply & Change in heavy oil supplyTimeline for enforcement of MARPOL Annex VI SOx emission limitRange of displaced fuel oil in 2020 & Product crack spread profile, 2001-2025Outlook for WTI-WCSRFS initial targets by category
- 38 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Oils & Chemicals Key Things to Watch for in 2026
This insight looks at the oils market, refining and petrochemical industries highlighting the key challenges in 2026.
$900
Insight
Refining the future: US-Saudi 2025 agreements accelerate refining and chemical integration
US-Saudi 2025 deals: US$600 billion investment reshapes oil and chemicals markets, accelerating refining and chemical integration.
$900
Commodity Market Report
Latin America and the Caribbean product markets short-term outlook November 2024
This monthly update incorporates crude runs, yields, and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2026 for Latin America.
$1,900
