Australia product markets long-term outlook H1 2020

In 2019, Australia had a total net deficit of 458,000 b/d in key products. We expect the net total deficit to remain stable through our forecast to 2040 with declining LPG surpluses offsetting declining transport fuel demand (the latter resulting from increased EV penetration and higher fuel efficiency). Production has declined with the closures of Kurnell and Bulwer lsland refineries in 2014 and 2015 respectively, as a result deficits widened significantly from 2015 on-wards. We forecast no additional refinery investment or closures and as such Australia will continue to tap into existing supply sources in Asia Pacific for more import volumes and take advantage of China's growing 10 ppm export availability.