Canada product markets 2021 outlook to 2050

Long-term outlook for the fundamentals of the Canadian oil products market. The road to recovery for Canada’s demand has met some challenges in the first half of this year amid a resurgence of Covid-19 cases, but rising vaccination rates and improved mobility by the middle of 2021 indicate that the road to recovery is ahead. As demand begins to rise, Canada’s refining sector is also recovering in 2021 at utilisation rises 79% from 2020 levels to 83% utilization, just 1% shy of pre-pandemic utilisation. As the energy transition progresses, we expect Canada oil demand to fall to 1.74 million b/d by 2050, a 30% decline from 2019 levels. Consequently, Canada’s refining sector are anticipated to lower their utilisation rates in response to the demand destruction, falling 19% from 2019 to only 65% by 2050. In this update, we are extending our refinery utilization and refinery supply outlook beyond 2027 to 2050 in this update, utilizing the Wood Mackenzie Refinery Supply Model.