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China reformate imports: arbitrage opportunity or octane shortage?

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Report summary

China reformate imports in the last few months hit record highs, driven by a surging arbitrage incentive. The perceived octane shortage due to specification change on the coast to China V gasoline is not echoed in the aromatics market which capacity remains underutilized. With huge uncertainty around consumption tax policy on imported reformate, the trade pattern is not considered structural.

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