Decarbonising commercial road transport - outlook for low carbon freight in Europe

Sales of commercial EVs have risen steadily in Europe over the past three years but are still heavily skewed towards small vans with a gross weight of less than 3.5 tonnes. With further advances in battery technologies, we expect sales of e-trucks to accelerate rapidly in the light and medium truck segments but will continue to lag for heavy trucks over 16 tonnes. This insight presents our base case outlook for fuel demand in the European commercial road sector. It explores the outlook for e-trucks in the various segments, assessing proposed new EU fuel efficiency targets for the heavy-duty segment and how these will impact European oil demand.