Commodity Market Report

Finland downstream oil long-term outlook

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Neste is the only crude oil refiner in Finland with a single refinery in Porvoo since the closure of the Naantali site in 2021. Although historically Neste produced a surplus of product to meet inland demand, this situation could change following the reduction of refining capacity in the country. Also the market leader in fuel distribution and retail, Neste dominates the inland wholesale market as it effectively sets the ex-refinery product prices for third party fuels marketers. Finland's retail network has been consolidating following the exit of the oil majors from the retail sector. Currently, the top four players supply over 95% of retail fuel demand. The national retail network is characterised by a high proportion of automated sites, at over 60%. However, we don't see this growing much further and expect it to stabilise going forward. As demand oil product demand peaks, we expect to see an increased drive to diversify at the forecourt.

Table of contents

  • Market drivers
    • Jet fuel
    • Excise duty and VAT
    • Stockholding
    • Product quality
    • Biofuels
    • Electromobility
    • Retail fuel volumes
    • Retail network development
    • Retail network efficiency
    • Major players: competitive position
    • Major players: strategies
    • Independent groups
    • SEO
    • Non-fuel retailing
    • Motor fuels
    • Industrial/domestic gas oil
    • Aviation kerosene
    • Heavy fuel oil
    • LPG
    • Lubricants
    • Bitumen
    • Key issues influencing gross fuel margins
    • Commercial fuels marketing
    • Distribution of oil products
    • Oil product storage infrastructure
    • Independent petroleum product storage

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Demand by product
  • Car parc by fuel type
  • Biofuel blending percentage
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Network development and average site throughput
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
  • Retail network size and market share by player (2020)
  • Commercial diesel demand
  • Retail gasoline 95RON price formation 2020
  • Retail diesel price formation 2020
  • Gross retail margins per year
  • Porvoo refinery profile

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Finland downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 1.55 MB