Global product markets weekly: crude price decline and slight gasoline recovery boost refining margins

The Dated Brent crude price fell sharply during the week commencing 29th October, with the weekly average down to US$73.80/bbl, over a $4.30/bbl drop from the previous week. Global demand headwinds have emerged in the past few weeks, with US/China tensions remaining high and the strong US dollar constraining emerging market purchasing power. Even though US sanctions against Iran are now fully online, key markets have either received temporary exemptions or have been able to effectively substitute to other markets, such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq. However, seasonal demand strength and sustained geopolitical risk points to our December Brent average at $79/bbl.