Global product markets weekly: Robust middle distillate and fuel oil cracks supported global refining margins

The oil market edged down on the gloomy macro outlook last week. The weekly average of the dated North Sea declined by US$0.33/bbl to US$62.39/bbl week on week. The Fed rate cut failed to bolster the market when the Fed Chair signalled that the cut could be one-off. On 1 August, President Trump suddenly announced another round of tariff effective 1 September on the remaining US$300 billion Chinese goods, sending ICE front-month Brent lower. We maintain our base case forecast on demand, though the risks to our demand outlook are skewed to the downside.