Commodity Market Report

Global product markets weekly update: margins flat as Brent rises again

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14 January 2019

Global product markets weekly update: margins flat as Brent rises again

Report summary

Crude prices substantially firmed during the week commencing 07 January 2019. The OPEC + agreement has provided support to the market, while the demand side has received some positive signals regarding the US China trade relationship. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the Trump Administration’s trade policies, so the market will likely react with some volatility on each small development. Key uncertainties in the OPEC + agreement include Libya and Iran. Libya production dipped below 1 million b/d last month, and Iran could see a modest recovery in production, although they still face US sanctions. The US Administration is on course to end waivers in a few months to key Iranian buyers, which could certainly provide additional upside to global oil prices. Our base case forecast has the global crude benchmark averaging $62.30/bbl in Q1, with the production cuts providing the majority of support.

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  • Document

    Weekly historical margins 14Jan2019.xls

    XLS 270.00 KB

  • Document

    Weekly update 14Jan19.pdf

    PDF 1.34 MB

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    Global product markets weekly update: margins flat as Brent rises again

    ZIP 1.42 MB