Indonesia retail fuels long-term outlook

Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous country and road fuel demand is expected to continue to grow rapidly out to 2040, supported by rising per capita incomes. Beyond 2040, road fuel demand will stagnate as the rising share of alternatively-powered vehicles has a material impact. The country is a net importer of refined oil products and much of the domestic oil market is under the control of state-owned Pertamina. Although its monopoly was ended following the liberalisation of the market in 2004, private players have yet to make a material impact on the market. There are more than 6,600 service stations in Indonesia, with an average throughput of more than nine million litres in 2023. This is an extremely high figure for average site throughput as the retail market is underserved due to Pertamina’s long-standing monopoly and strong barriers ahead of potential new market entrants.