Report summaryThe IMO Annex VI protocol will reduce the worldwide sulphur limit for marine fuels to 5000 ppm. Marine fuels which comply with the global sulphur cap include Marine Gasoil (MGO) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), while a new hybrid fuel, known as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO), is also likely to develop. If the IMO decides that there are insufficient compliant fuels available to meet the global cap by 2020, then enforcement will be deferred until 2025.
This insight establishes the current availability of fuel oil with sulphur levels less than 0.5wt%, based on Wood Mackenzie’s refinery asset analysis. Given the complexity around fuel oil blending, Wood Mackenzie considers ULSFO availability to be in the range of 500 – 700 kbd. This is modest compared to the global fuel oil bunker market and so other solutions are required to satisfy the IMO requirements, given that there is insufficient low sulphur (sweet) fuel oil currently available.
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