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Mexico´s crude dilemma: to import or not to import?

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09 November 2018

Mexico´s crude dilemma: to import or not to import?

Report summary

Pemex will import 1.4 million b/d of Bakken crude in November and December 2018. The crude, sold by P66, will be refined in Salina Cruz with the goal of maximising gasoline production. This report analysis the economics of this decision: Why Bakken? Why now? Are crude imports creating value for Pemex? Will they put a dent on gasoline imports? Is this strategy better than importing gasoline instead? Looking at 2019, crude imports from the US are unlikely to continue under the new administration, increasing the risks that refinery utilization in Mexico could remain capped at 36%. The combination of no crude imports and potential refinery maintenance announced by the new administration could provide an additional upside for US refiners to export gasoline to Mexico.

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    Mexicos crude dilemma slidepack.pdf

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