Commodity Market Report

Norway downstream oil long-term outlook

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23 February 2018

Norway downstream oil long-term outlook

Report summary

Oil product supply from Norway’s two refineries exceeds domestic demand, making Norway a large net exporter of refined products and setting inland market prices at export parity. Norway’s fuels market is highly-concentrated, with the top four companies supplying over 85% of demand. DCC Energy acquired ExxonMobil's Esso branded retail fuels chain in 2017, further fragmenting Norway's downstream supply chain, and there are no longer any integrated refining and fuels marketing players in Norway. Shell sold its fuels marketing businesses to St1 in 2015 and Circle K sold its aviation fuel supply division to Air BP in 2014. We expect gasoline will continue to gain against road diesel on a percentage of fuel consumption basis, but demand for the major transportation fuels in Norway remains in structural decline over the longer-term, as engine efficiency gains and electric car penetration erode gasoline and diesel use in this mature economy.

Table of contents

    • Market drivers
    • Outlook
    • Gasoline
    • Jet/kerosene
    • Gas/diesel oil
    • Fuel oil
    • Regulatory issues
    • Product quality
    • Overall position: net exporter
    • Fuels retailing
      • Volumes
      • International oil majors
        • Shell/St1
        • ExxonMobil
      • Independent and supermarket groups
        • Circle K
        • Uno-X
        • Best
      • Network efficiency
      • Performance pacesetters in the retail market
      • Non-fuel retailing
    • Commercial fuels
      • Motor fuels (gasoline and diesel)
      • Industrial/commercial gas oil
      • Aviation kerosene
      • Heavy fuel oil
      • Marine bunkers
      • LPG
      • Lubricants
      • Bitumen
    • Fuels marketing margins
      • Main products: annual average unit gross margin
      • Fuels marketing net profitability
    • Distribution of oil products
    • Oil product storage infrastructure
      • Independent petroleum product storage
    • Crude oil delivery
      • Country crude slate overview
    • Refining overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Key demand indicators
  • Total demand
  • Annual demand change
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand by sector
  • Trade balance 2010 - 2016
  • Storage and distribution infrastructure
  • Car parc by fuel type
  • Gasoil and diesel demand by sector
  • Fuel oil demand by sector
  • Demand forecast (kt)
  • Trade: Table 1
  • Main products: monthly unit gross margins 2010 - 2015
  • Means of primary distribution
  • Pipeline capacity and ownership
  • Mongstad refinery profile
  • Slagen refinery profile
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Market structure: Table 1
  • Market structure: Table 2
  • Market structure: Table 3
  • Network size and throughput per site
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
  • Commercial diesel volumes
  • Margins: Table 1
  • Unit net margins
  • Norway crude slate - 2016

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Norway downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 780.32 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 87.41 KB

  • Document


    PDF 139.89 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 86.09 KB

  • Document


    PDF 132.81 KB

  • Document

    Market structure

    PDF 185.69 KB

  • Document


    PDF 139.57 KB

  • Document


    PDF 479.29 KB

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