Oil products price forecast mid-month update February 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for January 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update on 1 February. In the first few weeks of the month, our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin decreased from our February price forecast. The decline was led by continued weakness in gasoil/diesel cracks, as values fell in all regions. European diesel imports from the Middle East surged in early February, providing a smooth transition away from Russian-origin material. Asian gasoil/diesel prices softened as Chinese exports increased supply, allowing more active E-W trade flows. A recovery in US inventories of both gasoline and gasoil/diesel further pressured margins. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 1 March 2023.