Oil products price forecast mid-month update February 2024

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for February 2024 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update. We have only made minor changes to our price forecast since our last update. The start of February has seen strong gains for product cracks as global markets work to rebalance around the tensions in the Red Sea. As spiking freight rates have made headlines, key arbitrages have struggled to remain open, leading to supply disruptions for volumes heading into Europe. As a result, we have increased pricing in the early months of our forecast to reflect a tighter diesel market. Meanwhile, ongoing global maintenance has led to an early peak in product stocks, further boosting cracks as traders begin to look ahead towards Summer demand. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 1 March 2024.