Oil products price forecast mid-month update March 2021

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for March 2021 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month. These changes reflect recent data releases and major market developments since our last update on 1 March. For this mid-month publication, we have updated our Brent price outlook to reflect commitments made at the 4 March OPEC+ meeting. Our monthly global composite refining margin rose US$0.66/bbl in 1H March to US$2.76/bbl, on track to be the highest value since April 2020. Global refinery margins have benefited from the extensive outages in the US Gulf Coast following the February winter storm. Higher runs to ease the gasoline shortfall will lead to over supply in middle distillates. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will published on April 1 2021.