Oil products price forecast mid-month update May 2022

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for May 2022 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update on 2 May. For this mid-month update, we have revised our monthly Brent price forecast to align with our Macro Oils Service short-term May outlook. We are continuing to emphasize the risk to oil production in Russia under the duress of unprecedented sanctions. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin increased in the first half of May as jet and gasoline cracks rose. We expect global margins to remain high through Q2 2022 driven by strong middle distillate and gasoline cracks. Higher global refinery utilisation to meet summer middle distillate demand will provide a ceiling to gasoline cracks as supply firms. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will published on 1 June 2022.