Oil products price forecast update August 2022

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2023 on a regional level. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin fell US$15.00/bbl in July as fears increased of demand destruction as recessionary pressures grew and the high outright prices reduced transportation fuel demand in the US and Europe. Atlantic basin refinery supply remained high and further pressured product balances in the western hemisphere adding to the downward pressure on refinery margin values. Global margins are forecast to continue falling into Q4 2022 as gasoline cracks weaken on a growing supply overhang in the Atlantic basin.