Oil products price forecast update February 2021

Our monthly global composite refining margin rose US$0.69/bbl in January to US$1.91/bbl. driven by strength in gasoline cracks, the first monthly increase since October. We expect the composite margin to average close to US$2.00/bbl through to the end of Q1 2021 as low refinery run rates keep global gasoline balances tight. Any rise in margin values above these levels will see a return of unutilised refining capacity, consequently capping further price increases. This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2022 on a regional level. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Monday 15 February.