Oil products price forecast update January 2022

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2023 on a regional level. For this update we have revised our H1 2022 monthly Brent price forecast to reflect the current impact of the geopolitical risk premium. Our near-term refining outlook is more positive than the December monthly view, given market sentiment is now pricing in a limited impact of the Omicron variant and global distillate and gasoline balances are tighter than previously forecast. We expect the composite margin to remain supported in January. Diesel/gasoil cracks will continue to strengthen despite slightly weaker gasoline cracks in the near term. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Monday 17 January.