Oil products price forecast update March 2021

Our monthly global composite refining margin rose US$0.21/bbl in February to US$2.12/bbl, driven by further strength in gasoline cracks. We expect the composite margin to remain close to US$2.00/bbl in March, before slowly rising to over US$4.00/bbl in July and August, as transportation fuel demand, and in particular gasoline, supports margins. Upside beyond these levels seems unlikely given the extensive spare capacity in all regions, consequently capping further margin price increases. This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2022 on a regional level. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Tuesday 16 March.