Oil products price forecast update May 2022

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2023 on a regional level. For this monthly update, we have kept our Brent price outlook unchanged from the April mid-month outlook. The next Brent forecast in the Macro Oils early May monthly update will reflect the latest supply and demand developments and a set of assumptions we are defining. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin rose in April, supported by a 15% jump in the diesel price risk premium in Europe. We expect global margins to remain high through Q2 2022 as strong distillate cracks in Europe are required to draw cargos to cover lower Russian flows.