Oil products price forecast update October 2021

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2023 on a regional level. Global refining margins have trended lower through the second half of September ending four weeks of consecutive gains. Margins were pressured by a sharp fall in gasoline cracks in the Atlantic Basin as US refinery utilisation returned after the impact of Hurricane Ida and seasonal demand declined. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin increased in September to the highest monthly average since July 2019. Seasonally strong gasoline cracks in the Atlantic basin continue to underpin global refining margins. Recovering European distillate cracks and high natural gas prices will continue to incentive switching to fuel oil for power generation in Asia, further strengthening global fuel oil cracks. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Monday 18 October.