Regional product markets short-term outlook August 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 July 2023

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Report summary

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2025 on a regional level. In the near term, we have made a 600kb/d and 200kb/d downward revision to June and July 2023 crude runs. This was mainly driven by lower runs in Asia and the Middle East given unplanned refinery downtime, but we have increased our outlook for Russian runs as seasonal maintenance ended. For this update, we have made a 460kb/d downward revision to Q4 2023 runs on heavy Middle East and Indian refinery maintenance, plus we have further delayed our view on the start-up of the Dangote refinery.