Regional product markets short-term outlook October 2021

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2023 on a regional level. In response to the slower demand recovery in Asia we have revised Q3 2021 crude runs down, mainly focused in India, Japan and China. For Q4 2021, we made further downgrades as lower China runs offset the upside to easing of restrictions in Japan, India and parts of SEA. With higher than expected maintenance in Europe in October, combined with strengthening Asian demand, distillate balances across both the Atlantic and Pacific basins are set to tighten into Q4 2021. We have therefore revised Middle East crude runs higher through Q4 2021. As part of this update, we have extended our outlook to include 2023, with crude runs east of Suez increasing more than in the Atlantic basin year on year.