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Smooth sailing or rough seas? Updated analysis of the IMO bunker sulphur changes


Smooth sailing or rough seas? Updated analysis of the IMO bunker sulphur changes

Report summary

The forthcoming change in IMO regulations on the quality of marine bunker fuel impacts the mix of fuel types consumed by the shipping sector in 2020. The IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee met again in July 2017 (MEPC 71), but many uncertainties surrounding the implementation path for the legislation remain. This insight summarises our latest view, providing an update on the article published in early 2017. Our base-case assumptions on compliance, scrubber penetration and ULSFO availability remain largely unchanged. The insight provides our latest forecasts for bunker fuel prices and crude differentials consistent with our H1 2017 Brent price forecast and global refined product imbalances. We have added a forecast for the ULSFO crack spread in this latest edition. And we also provide new commentary on the risk of established bunkering hubs losing market share as the IMO regulations have implications for relative regional marine fuel pricing and supply.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Smooth sailing or rough seas - Updated analysis of the IMO bunker sulphur changes.pdf (1) PDF - 1.84 MB
  • Smooth sailing or rough seas - data and charts.xls (1) XLS - 431.00 KB

Description

This Refining and Oil Products Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For participants, suppliers and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues of this topic, this report gives you an alternative point of view to help inform your decision making.

With over 20 years of experience in the refining industry, Wood Mackenzie is a trusted global leader with a reputation for producing consistently reliable information.

Our senior analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They use detailed research data to forecast, benchmark and recognise trends that will help both new and existing participants identify opportunities and avoid risks.

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