This time is different: India’s second wave impact to oil demand

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

The current Covid-19 pandemic is spreading through India at a much quicker pace than last year, accounting for almost 50% of global daily cases at its peak. The fierce second wave has sent many states into lockdown. But this year we expect the impact will be different. In this insight, we explain what sets this year’s lockdown different from last year’s and analyse the impact to both oil demand and supply if majority of the states and Union Territories extend lockdown to end May, two weeks after the assumption in our base case outlook. We will look at the following aspects: • A comparison between base case outlook and the downside case • How will the extended lockdown affect gasoline, diesel/gasoil and jet fuel demand differently? • What is the status of vaccine distribution in India? • How are Indian refiners reacting to the demand reduction and will that change if the lockdown continues? • What is the impact to India’s crude runs in our downside case?

Table of contents

  • How low could it go?
  • Indian refined product exports surge as refiners maintain high utilisation rates

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • India's total oil demand downside case versus base case
  • India road traffic congestion data, % decline vs 2019
  • India product exports - loading week

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    This time is different: India’s second wave impact to oil demand

    PDF 806.22 KB