This time is different: India’s second wave impact to oil demand

The current Covid-19 pandemic is spreading through India at a much quicker pace than last year, accounting for almost 50% of global daily cases at its peak. The fierce second wave has sent many states into lockdown. But this year we expect the impact will be different. In this insight, we explain what sets this year’s lockdown different from last year’s and analyse the impact to both oil demand and supply if majority of the states and Union Territories extend lockdown to end May, two weeks after the assumption in our base case outlook. We will look at the following aspects: • A comparison between base case outlook and the downside case • How will the extended lockdown affect gasoline, diesel/gasoil and jet fuel demand differently? • What is the status of vaccine distribution in India? • How are Indian refiners reacting to the demand reduction and will that change if the lockdown continues? • What is the impact to India’s crude runs in our downside case?