Commodity Market Report

United States product markets long-term outlook H1 2020

02 July 2020

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02 July 2020

United States product markets long-term outlook H1 2020

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's outlook for the fundamentals of the United States oil products market. From 2020 forward, the impacts from the Covid-19 demand shock reverberate in US oil demand, particularly in the gasoline and jet fuel sectors. Despite the effects on gasoline and jet fuel, growth in diesel-centric road freight demand and petrochemical feedstocks provide support to total oil demand. Because of the US shale growth slowdown, 12% of the US crude slate will still need to be imported from the Middle East and Latin America for the foreseeable future. This report contains our views on supply and demand of refined products (LPG, naphtha, gasoline, jet fuel, diesel/gasoil, and fuel oil).

US long-term demand outlook: Diesel, petrochemical demand supports growth through 2040 despite the 2020 Covid-19 demand shock
US supply will recover from 2020 demand shock, but to a new lower utilisation
The US crude slate remains reliant on imports of medium and heavy crude
- Non-refinery supply methodology