Since the advent of the shale boom many US refiners have benefitted from access to discounted tight oil. But, as production declined in 2016 differentials tighten and the benefit to US refiners shrank. Now, US tight oil is growing once more. Will increased production result in wider differentials and cheaper feedstock for US refiners, or will demand for US crude oil exports keep differentials narrow? In this report we investigate the future of US crude oil production, logistics, price differentials, refinery crude slates and crude oil exports.
Table of contents
US production influences crude price differentials and refining margins
What shifts US production from declining to increasing?
Which producing regions will be the first to respond?
Will enough infrastructure be built to support the production increases?
How might US refiners respond to growing US crude supply? Might it sail to other refining markets?
How wide does Brent-WTI need to be to encourage US crude oil exports?
Key uncertainties and strategic implications
Tables and charts
This report includes 9 images and tables including:
Brent-WTI Cushing differential & US tight oil differentials to WTI Cushing
Pre-FID global breakeven cost curve by resource theme
2020 global oil supply gap & Breakeven cost of required new supply
US oil supply outlook by resource theme & US tight oil supply outlook by play
Overview map of Gulf Coast infrastructure and developments
Permian supply and takeaway by destination
US crude oil supply & East Coast (PADD I) crude slates & Gulf Coast (PADD III) crude slates
Destinations of US crude oil exports & Mexico refinery crude slates
Conceptual overview of North American crude oil prices & Brent-WTI and US oil exports