What happens when US oil production recovers?

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Report summary

Since the advent of the shale boom many US refiners have benefitted from access to discounted tight oil. But, as production declined in 2016 differentials tighten and the benefit to US refiners shrank. Now, US tight oil is growing once more. Will increased production result in wider differentials and cheaper feedstock for US refiners, or will demand for US crude oil exports keep differentials narrow? In this report we investigate the future of US crude oil production, logistics, price differentials, refinery crude slates and crude oil exports.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    What happens when US oil production recovers.pdf

    PDF 959.43 KB

Table of contents

  • US production influences crude price differentials and refining margins
  • What shifts US production from declining to increasing?
  • Which producing regions will be the first to respond?
  • Will enough infrastructure be built to support the production increases?
  • How might US refiners respond to growing US crude supply? Might it sail to other refining markets?
  • How wide does Brent-WTI need to be to encourage US crude oil exports?
  • Key uncertainties and strategic implications

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:


  • Brent-WTI Cushing differential & US tight oil differentials to WTI Cushing
  • Pre-FID global breakeven cost curve by resource theme
  • 2020 global oil supply gap & Breakeven cost of required new supply
  • US oil supply outlook by resource theme & US tight oil supply outlook by play
  • Overview map of Gulf Coast infrastructure and developments
  • Permian supply and takeaway by destination
  • US crude oil supply & East Coast (PADD I) crude slates & Gulf Coast (PADD III) crude slates
  • Destinations of US crude oil exports & Mexico refinery crude slates
  • Conceptual overview of North American crude oil prices & Brent-WTI and US oil exports

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