Since the advent of the shale boom many US refiners have benefitted from access to discounted tight oil. But as production declined in 2016 differentials tighten and the benefit to US refiners shrank. Now US tight oil is growing once more. Will increased production result in wider differentials and cheaper feedstock for US refiners or will demand for US crude oil exports keep differentials narrow? In this report we investigate the future of US crude oil production logistics price differentials refinery crude slates and crude oil exports.