The Latam NOCs never fully recovered from the 2014/2015 downturn. The latest price collapse has further exposed their financial frailty. What pain points do we see ahead? 1) Budget cuts reverse previous investment growth plans: the group cut US$13 billion (33%) from their original 2020 budgets. 2) Cash squeeze will impact investment and production outlooks: breakevens for 2020 are well above US$35/bbl Brent with the exception of Petrobras. 3) Balance sheets will deteriorate as the necessary responses are carried out: already high debt levels are set to soar further. 4) Government support is now more critical than ever: all NOCs will receive some form of state support, with the most fragile (Pemex, YPF) expected to receive the most aid.