Bigger, better: Middle East Oils' growth ambitions Report

Insight 08 October 2019

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Report summary

The Middle East’s biggest oil producers are set to get bigger. ADNOC, Kuwait Petroleum and Saudi Aramco all want to grow in gas, refining and petrochemicals, as well as sustaining their core oil production businesses. Domestic development remains central but international expansion is firmly on the agenda, especially for Saudi Aramco. We estimate the NOCs will need to invest US$1.2 trillion over the next 20 years to achieve their ambitions. The NOCs are financially well placed to invest and are using a variety of new funding sources. Developing integrated exposure to overseas growth markets will also require new partnerships. Asia and the Middle East will be the main geographical targets. Low-cost, low-carbon intensity oil production will remain the Middle East NOCs’ trump card. The combination of big ambitions and advantaged portfolios means we expect the Middle East NOCs to become increasingly competitive global energy players.

Executive summary
- Big ambitions
- Key corporate growth targets
- Over US$1.2 trillion of investment required
- Upstream remains core
- Downstream will increase in importance
- Funding investment
- Huge operational cash flow generation
- Payments to government and oil prices will determine financial capacity
- Securing new finance
- Achieving growth goals will need more partnerships
- Conclusion – the growing global role of the Middle East NOCs