Black Sea gas production transforms Turkey’s energy outlook Report

Insight 21 April 2023

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Report summary

Türkiye (Turkey) has commissioned Phase One at its deepwater Sakarya gas megaproject in the Black Sea. State-owned TPAO, the operator, has achieved first gas less than three years since discovering the giant field. To date, Turkey has relied almost entirely on gas imports to meet its demand. Sakarya’s supply is therefore of huge political and strategic importance. It redefines the scale of Turkey’s upstream gas sector, bringing its first deepwater output and a shift in domestic energy security. We assess Sakarya’s impact and wider dynamics: • Project delivery - how does Sakarya’s impressive lead time rank globally? • Future Sakarya expansion - what is the planned scale and schedule? • Turkish gas market - what share of demand will Sakarya cover? • Turkish gas trade - how will Sakarya affect import contract renewals? • Other Black Sea projects - where are the upstream milestones to watch?

Executive summary
Sakarya gas production reshapes Turkey’s upstream sector
- How much will Sakarya Phase One produce?
- How big is Sakarya?
- How commercially attractive is Sakarya?
What next for the wider Black Sea upstream sector?
- In Romania, a landmark FID (finally)
- In Bulgaria, a make-or-break exploration well
Turkey’s large gas market welcomes much-needed Sakarya volumes
- Unprecedented domestic production will transform Turkey’s energy security
- Gas demand will maintain growth into 2030s, but faces headwinds
- Structural changes await for Turkey’s gas contracting

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Lead time benchmarking - time from discovery to start-up for peer group of large/giant offshore gas fields
Sakarya production and capital expenditure
Black Sea upstream overview
Turkey gas supply mix
Turkey gas demand and contracted imports