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BP corporate report

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19 March 2019

BP corporate report

Report summary

BP is in the midst of an unprecedented phase of growth. Three years of bold, countercyclical business development – project sanctions, discovered resource access, M&A – have transformed the portfolio and the outlook. The company now sits poised to become the world's largest IOC by production, underpinned by a wave of new projects that we see generating a weighted average IRR of 25%. This is a compelling turn-around story. Four years ago, we said that BP needed to take action to strengthen a (then) weak development pipeline, and to sharpen the message to investors. The journey has been challenging, but there is a sense now that BP is back where it should be – at the top table with Shell and ExxonMobil.

Table of contents

  • Reinvention
    • Guidance to 2021
    • Capacity from 2021 to 2025
  • Market rating
  • Financial framework
    • Current strategic positioning
    • Production outlook
    • New project returns
    • Portfolio renewal
    • LNG
    • Fuels
    • Refining
    • International Maritime Organisation (IMO) regulation impact on refining
    • Marketing
    • Lubricants
    • Chemicals
    • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case reserves and resources metrics
    • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 41 images and tables including:

  • Benchmarking: share price performance
  • Market premium / discount to WoodMac NPV10
  • BP reported earnings by segment
  • BP reported Downstream earnings by business
  • Strategic fit of upstream regions
  • Benchmarking: NPV10 by resource theme
  • BP production guidance vs. WoodMac forecasts
  • Benchmarking: WoodMac production forecast
  • BP new project returns (pre-sanction)
  • New project returns (pre-sanction)
  • Gas into LNG
  • Contracted LNG volumes
  • BP 2017 average regional NCM & CDU capacity
  • Refining benchmark: BP vs. peers
  • Refining EBITDA* 2017-2020 forecast: BP vs. peers
  • Refining EBITDA 2017-2020 uplift: BP vs. peers
  • Refining and retail network: BP versus peers
  • BP global branded retail fuel sites
  • BP regional retail network: Europe and US
  • BP regional retail network: Rest of world
  • Upstream EV vs. Upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. Future NPV,10
  • Base case upstream NPV,10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • Reported and WM forecasted production
  • Oil vs. Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves; Wood Mackenzie commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Total reserves: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Reserve life: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Value assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions

What's included

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