Caspian upstream: 5 things to look for in 2025 Report

Insight 04 December 2024

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Report summary

The Caspian upstream sector approaches 2025 in need of a reset. The region – with its high costs and extended lead times – has struggled to compete for capital as corporate portfolios have become more disciplined and risk averse. Perennially delayed start-ups and project approvals have depressed the region’s investment outlook. E&A activity has nosedived. But the coming year could be an inflexion point. First oil from Chevron’s Tengiz mega-expansion will underline the scale of production possible from the Caspian’s world-class resource base. A promising cohort of projects are close to FID. Getting them over the line will be key to avoiding an impending upstream investment ‘cliff-edge’. We highlight five key themes to watch in 2025.

Executive summary
- 1. Kazakh liquids output will (finally) surpass 2 million b/d
- 2. A bumper year for FIDs will offer a lifeline for the Caspian investment outlook
- 3. Deep exploration will drive Kazakh resource replenishment
- 4. Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan must grab gas export opportunities with both hands
- 5. Caspian NOCs will seek IOC partners to drive stalled projects and exploration
- Things to look for in 2025 – a regional upstream series
- Global upstream insights:
- Regional upstream insights: