Class of 2023: benchmarking this year's upstream FIDs Report

Insight 17 March 2023

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Report summary

After a year of high oil and gas prices and record cash flows, most upstream operators are in good financial health. But companies will remain disciplined as ongoing cost inflation erodes project economics. Some developments will be re-evaluated, and possibly delayed, as a result. Overall, the NOCs will dominate the class of 2023, taking advantage of discovered resources and lower unit costs. IOCs will largely take advantage of higher return deepwater projects. But they will also continue to face scrutiny on emissions, mitigation and investment in new oil and gas projects.

Executive summary
Slides and key messages
- Summary and context
- Up to 40 projects will be ready for FID in 2023
- Major projects that could reach FID continue to be oil weighted
- Up to US$180 billion of investment and 27 billion boe will be sanction-ready in 2023
- Project economics
- Brent breakeven prices will average US$49/bbl (NPV15) in 2023
- IRR and payback remain key economic metrics to determine commercial viability
- Deepwater capex per boe is the highest among all resource themes
- Emissions and decarbonisation
- Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensities broadly similar to the class of 2022
- Deepwater is advantaged as it offers both lower emissions and higher post-tax returns
- Value at risk