Company Report
ConocoPhillips corporate report
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Report summary
ConocoPhillips' message and strategy have been consistent since 2017, focused like a laser on perpetual high-grading of the company’s low cost-of-supply portfolio, maintaining a resilient balance sheet, and returning meaningful capital to shareholders. As one of the few companies with a strong balance sheet and strategic flexibility heading into the pandemic downturn in 2020, ConocoPhillips was able to make two transformative counter-cyclical deals that turned a mid-table Lower 48 segment into an elite Permian position. The flipside of the rapid assembly of a Permian powerhouse is that the portfolio is now much more concentrated, and Permian growth will concentrate it further. There are opportunities for re-balancing investments. The company took steps in that direction in 2022, making numerous moves towards building LNG into a third major growth and value theme. But after two years of portfolio-transforming deals, 2023 likely represents a further pivot towards execution and delivery.
Table of contents
- Permian powerhouse underpins the portfolio
- Portfolio concentration has increased, but isn’t extreme
-
Will pressure to decarbonize and invest in new energies grow?
- Overview
- Key targets
- Long-term strategic outlook
- Recent market performance
- Benchmarking: Market premium/discount to WM base-case (color-coded by peer group)
- Overview
- ConocoPhillips’ guidance
- ConocoPhillips’ cash flow sources and uses, historical and Wood Mackenzie base case forecast
- Wood Mackenzie outlook
- Financial swing factors
- Current strategic position
- Overview
- Portfolio concentration: % total upstream value accounted for by the top four regions & top asset
- Growth themes
- Permian
- Alaska
- Global LNG
- Mature/base business, non-core regions and potential high-grading
- Strategic fit of upstream regions (bubble size = proportional to remaining PV10)
- Wood Mackenzie view and guidance
- Unconventionals
- Onstream conventional
- Development queue
- Oil-gas split
- Benchmarking: % gas production, Majors and select large cap US independents
- Portfolio renewal
- Overview
- Exploration
- Overview
- Exploration performance
- Benchmarking: conventional exploration value creation 2017-2021
- Conventional exploration outlook
- Business development and M&A
- Overview
- Outlook
- Overview
- Emissions reduction targets
- New Energy
- ConocoPhillips’ versus Majors’ low carbon investment guidance
- Base price assumptions
- Valuation assumptions
Tables and charts
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