Insight
Contango - Futures Price and the 'Bid for Storage'
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The shape or time structure of the futures market is a powerful, real-time market signal that can complement fundamental supply/demand analysis and improve short term price forecast. The futures market discounts risk; the risk of supply shortages and the risk of high inventories and storage containment. Backward futures markets are consistent with a demand pull out of inventory while contango markets are consistent with a supply push into inventory.
Table of contents
- Contango Futures Market – The economic incentive to hold excess inventory
- A widely used risk management tool
- Contango and Cost of Storage (COS)
-
2012 Ethane Regime Change
- Ethane Supply Surge
-
WTI - Recent transition from backward to contango
- WTI January 2015 projection based on recent trends and correlations
- Summary
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Example of Contango Storage Price Parities
- WTI September 2014 to December 2014 M1-M4 Futures Shape
- WTI - October Inventory Builds Pushed Curve into Contango
- Strong Relationship Between WTI Price and Future's Shape
- WTI Price
- Contango - Futures Price and the 'Bid for Storage': Image 11
- Contango - Futures Price and the 'Bid for Storage': Image 4
- Contango - Futures Price and the 'Bid for Storage': Image 5
- Contango - Futures Price and the 'Bid for Storage': Image 6
- Contango - Futures Price and the 'Bid for Storage': Image 12
What's included
This report contains:
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