Insight
CPC disruption adds Kazakh export risks to global oil supply concerns
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Storm damage at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)’s Black Sea terminal in Russia has taken at least half of the oil pipeline’s 1.6 million b/d capacity offline. This casts uncertainty on almost 1% of global liquids supply. The CPC may end in Russia, but it is landlocked Kazakhstan’s dominant oil transport route, including all exports from its three Majors-led upstream megaprojects. To Kazakhstan’s relief, tanker loadings have resumed from an undamaged single point mooring. But a short-term production constraint is already apparent. Alternative oil export routes cannot make up for the lost CPC capacity. Especially at short notice. We assess the repercussions for the Kazakh upstream sector and the wider oil market: • What is the cause and scale of the outage? • How reliant is Kazakh oil supply on the CPC? • Who buys CPC volumes and which other crudes could substitute for it? • What are the alternative routes for Kazakh exports that avoid Russia transit?
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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What is the cause and scale of the outage?
- Worst case scenario avoided, but partial downtime to last more than a month
- How reliant is Kazakh oil supply on the CPC?
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Who buys CPC volumes and which other crudes could substitute for it?
- A torrid month for CPC blend and other crudes out of Russian ports
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What are the alternative routes for Kazakh exports?
- Transit across Caspian Sea from Aktau port to Azerbaijan
- Export to China
- A reminder of the perils of concentrating risk on a single offtake route
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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CPC terminal - average loadings by weekKazakh oil and condensate in 2021 by sales routeCPC terminal exports by upstream source
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CPC pipeline and Kazakh oil export infrastructureCPC and Urals oil blends - average monthly price differential to North Sea datedBTC pipeline availabilityKazakhstan-China Oil Pipeline (Atasu-Alashankou section) availability
What's included
This report contains:
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