CPC disruption adds Kazakh export risks to global oil supply concerns
Storm damage at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)’s Black Sea terminal in Russia has taken at least half of the oil pipeline’s 1.6 million b/d capacity offline. This casts uncertainty on almost 1% of global liquids supply. The CPC may end in Russia, but it is landlocked Kazakhstan’s dominant oil transport route, including all exports from its three Majors-led upstream megaprojects. To Kazakhstan’s relief, tanker loadings have resumed from an undamaged single point mooring. But a short-term production constraint is already apparent. Alternative oil export routes cannot make up for the lost CPC capacity. Especially at short notice. We assess the repercussions for the Kazakh upstream sector and the wider oil market: • What is the cause and scale of the outage? • How reliant is Kazakh oil supply on the CPC? • Who buys CPC volumes and which other crudes could substitute for it? • What are the alternative routes for Kazakh exports that avoid Russia transit?