Equity valuations and implied oil prices

Report summary

Lower 48-focused operators have issued billions of dollars in new shares, and development is continuing in key plays, despite the fact that most new wells are uneconomic at futures strip pricing. We explain operator behaviour based on the long-term oil price implied from equity valuations. The futures curve is simply spot price adjusted for time and storage cost. We calculate the long-term oil price implied by equity valuations and run all Lower 48 onshore and Gulf of Mexico Shelf assets at the equity-implied price deck. It's clear the equity  market is pricing a substantial recovery in price into current valuations. We analyse the implications for activity levels and benchmark operators and regions. If equity valuations continue to include a substantial premium to strip pricing, it could support additional share issuances and more development activity than futures strip prices would otherwise suggest.