Insight
Geology vs technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Tight oil production growth from the Permian has been nothing short of remarkable. Technology has played a huge role in the production performance so far, and we think technology-led gains will continue beyond 2017. Conversely though, tighter well spacing and well-on-well interference are starting to highlight inevitable reservoir risks. In this effective tug of war, what wins over the long term?
Table of contents
- Introduction
- Current tight oil growth goals
- Sense-checking these ambitions
- and further investigating the relentless gas gains
- Upside risks: more technological breakthroughs are happening
- ‘Technology enhancement scenario’ – production upside of 500,000 b/d
- Downside risks: subsurface limitations
- Permian challenges
- Frac hits
- Modelling frac hit implications
- Child well and frac hit effect – lower tight oil peak four years earlier
- Takeaways and oil price impacts
- 1 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Guidance from a sampling of Permian tight oil producersRemarkably similar: normalised growth comparison between L48 shale gas and tight oilBarnett EUR - rate of change
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Wolfcamp EUR - rate of changeBreakthrough technologies transforming type curves todayTechnology upside supply scenario: same future well count but 500,000 b/d of gainsBarnett EUR - rate of changeBarnett EUR - rate of change normalisedChild well query rulesParent to child well performance study: Eagle FordDownside supply scenario: peaks soon after parent well locations are exhaustedType curve changes - Wolfcamp Deep Basin
- 5 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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