Insight
| |
14 Pages

Geology vs technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?


Geology vs technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?

Report summary

Tight oil production growth from the Permian has been nothing short of remarkable. Technology has played a huge role in the production performance so far, and we think technology-led gains will continue beyond 2017. Conversely though, tighter well spacing and well-on-well interference are starting to highlight inevitable reservoir risks. In this effective tug of war, what wins over the long term?

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Geology vs technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth? PDF - 1.92 MB 14 Pages, 0 Tables, 17 Figures

Description

This Upstream Oil and Gas Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the key implications for those involved.

This report helps participants, suppliers and advisors understand trends, risks and issues within the upstream oil and gas industry. It gives you an expert point of view to support informed decision making.

Wood Mackenzie's 500 dedicated analysts are located in the markets they cover. They produce forward-looking analysis at both country and asset level across the globe, backed by our robust proprietary database of trusted research.

Proprietary data means a superior level of analysis that is simply not available anywhere else. Wood Mackenzie is the recognised gold standard in upstream commercial data and analysis.

  • Introduction
  • Current tight oil growth goals
  • Sense-checking these ambitions…
  • …and further investigating the relentless gas gains
  • Upside risks: more technological breakthroughs are happening
  •  ‘Technology enhancement scenario’ – production upside of 500,000 b/d
  • Downside risks: subsurface limitations
  • Permian challenges
  • Frac hits
  • Modelling frac hit implications
  • Child well and frac hit effect – lower tight oil peak four years earlier
  • Takeaways and oil price impacts
  • Appendix: modelling detail

In this report there are 17 tables or charts, including:

  • Introduction
  • Current tight oil growth goals
    • Guidance from a sampling of Permian tight oil producers
  • Sense-checking these ambitions…
    • Remarkably similar: normalised growth comparison between L48 shale gas and tight oil
  • …and further investigating the relentless gas gains
    • Barnett EUR - rate of change
    • Wolfcamp EUR - rate of change
  • Upside risks: more technological breakthroughs are happening
    • Breakthrough technologies transforming type curves today
  •  ‘Technology enhancement scenario’ – production upside of 500,000 b/d
    • Technology upside supply scenario: same future well count but 500,000 b/d of gains
  • Downside risks: subsurface limitations
    • Barnett EUR - rate of change
    • Barnett EUR - rate of change normalised
  • Permian challenges
    • Child well query rules
    • Parent to child well performance study: Eagle Ford
  • Frac hits
  • Modelling frac hit implications
  • Child well and frac hit effect – lower tight oil peak four years earlier
    • Downside supply scenario: peaks soon after parent well locations are exhausted
  • Takeaways and oil price impacts
  • Appendix: modelling detail
    • Type curve changes - Wolfcamp Deep Basin
    • EUR comparison - Wolfcamp Deep Basin
    • Sub-play type curve detailed adjustments (Technology upside case)
    • Sub-play type curve detailed adjustments (Reservoir downside case)
    • Parent to child well switching schedule
    • Permian sub-play map
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

As the trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, we empower clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice. Find out more...