2018 will be a pivotal year for the global oil market. On the supply side, we will learn whether US tight oil can really deliver, as completions 'catch up'. The fate of the Iranian nuclear deal will also become known, and we will learn more about the ability of Venezuela to weather its current economic storm. As ever, Libya and Nigeria require careful monitoring, as does adherence to the OPEC/non-OPEC deal, especially if prices stay elevated around $70 per barrel. What are the upside risks? Effective project execution could lead to stronger than expected production in Brazil; and after a few years of unplanned outages in Canada, the ramp up of two new large-scale developments present upside risk. Finally, and perhaps more important than the other upside risks, stronger finances – boosted by the recent run up in prices – could improve the outlook for decline rates.