Global oil supply long-term outlook H2 2019

Global liquids production capacity shows strong increases into the medium term, reaching a plateau of 117 million b/d from 2030 to 2035. Near-term downgrades have been made as US Lower 48 production growth slows and OPEC capacity is revised lower, out to the mid-2020s. Post-2025, deferred US growth and upgrades to Russia and Europe production result in an average 580,000 b/d uplift to supply through to 2035. Output from non-OPEC countries is bolstered by an improved outlook for decline rates, as the industry continues to emerge from the price downturn stronger. Non-OPEC output plateaus at 66 million b/d from 2025 and peaks at close to 67 million b/d in 2031. OPEC capacity revisions are focused on near-term downgrades. Loss of capacity in Venezuela and Angola see capacity revised lower out to 2025. We expect these downgrades to OPEC capacity to persist into the longer-term due to the deferral of long-term growth in Iran.