Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - April 2020
Report summary
The outlook for global liquids supply growth this year is higher due to expectations for increased OPEC output, partly balanced by reductions in non-OPEC supply. For 2021 the reductions in non-OPEC supply gain pace and match the elevated levels of OPEC output. OPEC crude production falls by 0.3 million b/d in 2020, an upward revision of 1.0 million b/d from last month. This reflects a sharp increase in output by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates from March 2020, partly balanced by downgrades to Libya and Venezuela. Non-OPEC liquids production is now forecast to increase by 1.6 million b/d in 2020 and decrease by 1.0 million b/d in 2021. This is primarily driven by lower US Lower 48 production, plus reduced supply from other parts of North America, chiefly western Canada, Latin America and to a lesser extent Europe beyond 2020.
Table of contents
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Global supply: who blinks first? OPEC increases production, non-OPEC supply begins to flex lower
- Anatomy of a new supply crisis
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Global liquids supply outlook: an increase of 1.6 million b/d in 2020 and flat in 2021
- Non-OPEC supply will be more elastic this time
- US Lower 48: rapid response expected as operators slash spending
- Conventional supply is reacting but at a slower pace
- OPEC: Saudi Arabia and UAE increase supply as OPEC+ deal unwinds
Tables and charts
This report includes 1 images and tables including:
- Regional decline rates: North America, Asia and Latin America saw most pronounced impact from 2014/2015 price crash. Analysis as of our H2 2019 long term outlook – 2020-22 will change
What's included
This report contains:
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