Global oil supply short-term update - April 2024

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied this month by a slide deck and related excel data download. On 3 April, members of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) agreed to make no changes to the current output policy with high levels of compliance noted from participating members. This continued production restraint, coupled with a slowdown in non-OPEC supply growth and strong demand, points to a tighter market from the second quarter, which will support higher prices. Russia also announced that its voluntary adjustments for the second quarter will now be based fully on crude oil production rather than a split of oil production and exports. The revisions to our overall forecast are mainly focused on 2024, with downgrades in the US, Brazil, Canada, South Sudan and Niger offsetting minor upgrades to Kazakhstan.